Tropical Storm Rafael

Projected path of Tropical Storm Rafael
source: The Weather Channel

Tropical Storm Rafael is currently sustaining winds of 60 mph. The storm is located about 185 miles north east of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and is projected to hit Bermuda later this week.


Though the storm is not directly affecting the Bahamas and surrounding islands, it is creating intense surf conditions and rip currents on the eastern side beaches reports the National Hurricane Center. Four to six inches of rain are also projected to fall over the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands, possibly causing flash floods and mud slides.


The National Hurricane Center is using the technology paradigm in order to project the path of the tropical storm and where it will indirectly cause damage.

sources:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/14/world/americas/tropical-storm-rafael/index.html?hpt=wo_c2
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/depression-storm-seventeen-20121011

Northeast Indonesia Volcano

Proximate location of Mount Lokon

Mount Lokon, in the North Sulawesi province of Indonesia (which is part of the "Ring of Fire") began to erupt lava and ash around 2:05pm Eastern time on Sunday, October 8th. Nearby residents, up to 3.8 miles away, reported hearing thumping noises around the time of eruption.

The volcano has been active since Friday, 10/5, but only spewing out ash. Officials did issue an early warning, but the mountain was still considered idle until the major eruption.

Eruptions continued after the initial; however, they are unable to be seen because of the thck clouds of ash surrounding the summit of the mountain.

Officials advise residents to limit outdoor activities and stay away from the volcano, but are not issuing an evacuation. This is because of an eruption that happened in July 2011. Mount Lokon had a series of eruptions that prompted officials to evacuate 4,000+ local residents.
They are using the development paradigm in the current situation. Adaption and predictions to make this judgement call. Since the evacuation in 2011 was unnecessary post hoc, they are seeing this as a similar instance and issuing a warning versus going any further.












Source:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/07/world/asia/indonesia-volcano/index.html?hpt=wo_bn4